What edgewatch is
edgewatch is an information service. Every five minutes it fetches the publicly available odds from the eight bookmakers licensed by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of the Slovak Republic (ÚRHH), pairs the matches across them and compares the odds with an estimate of the fair price. It shows the result as a table.
The service does not operate gambling, accepts neither bets nor deposits, does not manage accounts with bookmakers and does not place bets for you. It gives no tips and does not promise profit. It shows where the odds are and how they differ from the reference; the decision is yours, and you place the bet yourself in the bookmaker's app or on its website.
Quick start
- Open the app. Without logging in, you see the board with a 15-minute delay.
- The Board tab shows the best odds on every match and market across the bookmakers.
- The EV column tells you how much better or worse the odds are than our fair price.
- The Alerts tab shows the cases where the EV has crossed the threshold. The Surebets tab shows combinations of odds across bookmakers that cover every outcome.
- Registering raises the row limits. Pro removes the delay and the limits altogether.
Where the odds come from
We collect the main markets (the match winner, i.e. 1X2 or a two-way market, and total goals) from these eight bookmakers:
These are all the bookmakers holding a valid licence for online fixed-odds betting in Slovakia. As a rule, we neither name nor link to any other brand: most of them are not allowed to accept bets from Slovak players here, and payments to them are blocked.
We take the odds from the public price lists that the bookmakers show to every visitor. We pair matches by their Betradar IDs and, where a feed does not contain them, by the team names and the kick-off time. The pairing is not one hundred per cent reliable; if you see a match that has clearly been paired wrongly, write to us.
How to read the board
One row is one combination of match, market and outcome, for example the draw in Elche – Real Madrid. The row shows the bookmaker with the best odds, the odds themselves, the fair price, the EV and a breakdown of the odds at every bookmaker.
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Match | The home and away team, and the kick-off time in Europe/Bratislava time. |
| Outcome | 1 home, X draw, 2 away. For total goals, Over or Under with the line. |
| Odds | The highest odds on this outcome across the bookmakers. In a tie, we show the first bookmaker in alphabetical order. |
| Fair price | The odds that would match our estimate of the probability without a margin. More under Fair price. |
| EV | By how many per cent the odds are better (positive) or worse (negative) than the fair price. |
| Source | pinnacle or consensus:N, depending on what the fair price was derived from. |
Most rows have a negative EV. That is how it should be: the bookmaker's margin is its profit, and ordinary odds sit below the fair price. The exceptions are what is interesting.
Fair price
A bookmaker's odds contain a margin. If you add up the inverse of the odds on every outcome of a match, you get a number greater than 1; the excess over 1 is the margin. The fair price is an estimate of the odds once the margin has been removed.
We remove the margin with the power method, which spreads it unevenly: outsiders carry a larger share of the margin than favourites, which matches reality better than a simple even split.
Two sources of the fair price
pinnacle— reference odds from a sharp bookmaker. Such bookmakers have low margins, and their odds are regarded as the best available estimate of the probability. This is the stronger source.consensus:N— if we have no reference odds for a match, we use the median of the Slovak bookmakers' own odds after removing the margin, whereNis the number of sources. We require at least four independent bookmakers (we count Tipsport and Chance once, as they run on the same platform).
Expected value (EV)
EV is the single number that ties the odds to the probability:
We take the probability from the fair price. An example: the fair price of the draw is 8.00, which corresponds to a probability of 1 ÷ 8.00 = 0.125. If a bookmaker offers odds of 9.00 on the draw, then EV = 0.125 × 9.00 − 1 = +0.125, i.e. +12.5%.
EV is not a prediction of the result and does not say that the bet will win. It says that, at these odds and with this estimate of the probability, the price is favourable. At odds of 9.00 you lose roughly seven out of every eight such bets. It only makes sense over a large number of bets, and only if the estimate of the probability is good.
Value bet
A value bet is a bet with a positive EV: the odds are higher than the fair price would justify. We find it by comparing the best odds across the bookmakers with the fair price and picking the cases above the threshold.
Why such odds exist at all: bookmakers do not change their prices at the same moment, some copy the competition with a delay, and in smaller competitions their estimate is rougher. The gap tends to be short-lived, often a matter of minutes.
A practical note on account limiting. Bookmakers watch who repeatedly bets on odds just before they drop. Accounts that look like this are, in time, restricted to low stakes. This is common practice, not a malfunction, and it affects everyone who bets on value. Expect it.
Surebet
A surebet (arbitrage) is a combination of odds at different bookmakers that covers every possible outcome in such a way that the inverse odds add up to less than 1:
If the ROI is positive, then with the right split of the stake between the bookmakers the result is the same no matter who wins. The app suggests how to split the stake.
- The odds can change between placing the first and the second bet. Then you do not have a surebet but an open position.
- A bookmaker can reject the bet or reduce the stake.
- Some surebets exist only because one bookmaker has stale odds on a small competition. These are the hardest to get placed and the quickest to lead to a restricted account.
- You need to have money spread across several bookmakers at the same time.
Free and Pro
We show public data with a delay. Both the delay and the row limits are set by the server according to whether and how you are logged in; they cannot be bypassed with a parameter in the address.
| Tier | Delay | Board | Alerts | Surebets | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not logged in | 15 min | 25 rows | 10 | 5 | 0 € |
| Registered (Free) | 15 min | 50 rows | 20 | 10 | 0 € |
| Pro | live | unlimited | unlimited | unlimited | 29 € / month · 249 € / year |
The delay means that you see the state of the market as it was fifteen minutes ago. An opportunity that appeared and disappeared within those fifteen minutes does not show up in the Free version at all. That is by design, not a bug.
Alerts and Telegram
When odds cross the EV threshold, we record an alert. In the app you find them on the Alerts tab; every alert remembers the odds and the fair price at the moment it was created and shows the current state next to them, so you can see whether the market has moved in the meantime.
If Telegram is set up, we also send the alerts to a channel: to the public one with the same 15-minute delay as Free, and to the private one, live, for Pro. You will find the link to join in your account once you have logged in. Both channels post in Slovak.
Promo calendar
An overview of each bookmaker's recurring promotions (welcome bonuses, weekend promotions, loyalty programmes) with their dates and conditions. We copy the conditions from the promotions' public terms, but the bookmaker's own wording is always the binding one, and it can change without notice. Read the conditions at the source before you deposit.
What the service does not do
- It does not place bets for you. It has no access to your bookmaker accounts and will never ask for it.
- It gives no tips or predictions and does not promise profit. A positive EV is not a guarantee of a win.
- It offers no casino games, slots or poker, and no feature leads to these products.
- It does not guarantee that the odds are correct. The data come from public feeds and may be delayed, wrongly paired or incomplete. Check the odds with the bookmaker before placing a bet.
- It does not take your limits and balances into account. How much to bet, and whether to bet at all, is your decision.
- It does not work with unlicensed bookmakers. We neither name nor compare any other brand.
Responsible gambling
18+ Only people aged 18 or over may use the service. Betting carries the risk of losing money and leads to addiction in some people.
- Bet only money you can afford to lose. Never borrowed money.
- Do not try to win back a loss with a bigger stake. This is the most common way a small loss turns into a big one.
- Set yourself a daily and a weekly cap before you start, and stick to it even when things are going well.
- If you feel you are losing control of your gambling, use self-exclusion. Bookmakers must offer it, and there is also a national register of excluded persons kept by the Gambling Regulatory Authority (ÚRHH). If you are listed in it, do not use this service.
- Free help and counselling are available from zavislosti.sk and from the free crisis line (linka dôvery) 0800 800 566.
Contact
Questions, a wrongly paired match or incorrect odds: info@edgewatch.io. When you report an error, the name of the match, the bookmaker and the time help us.
Operator: LMP Consulting s.r.o., IČO 53798341, Mateja Bela 2449/25, 911 08 Trenčín, Slovenská republika. Details in the Terms of use and the Privacy policy.